Open enrollment prep

How to Estimate Your Income for Marketplace Coverage in 2027

Start with your household's adjusted gross income from your last tax return. Add any untaxed foreign income, untaxed Social Security, and tax-exempt interest. Then adjust for changes you expect in 2027. Count yourself, your spouse, and everyone you will claim as a tax dependent.

By Paul Daniels, licensed insurance agent · Last reviewed

Your Marketplace savings are based on the income you expect in the year you want coverage. They are not based on last year's income. So when you apply for 2027 coverage, you are making a guess about 2027. A good guess helps you get the right amount of help.

Florida uses HealthCare.gov. As of October 2, 2026, open enrollment for 2027 coverage runs November 1, 2026, to January 15, 2027. See every date in our Florida open enrollment guide.

Why your estimate matters more in 2027

As of October 2, 2026, under current law, there is no cap on paying back extra tax credit, starting with 2026 taxes. If you get more credit during the year than you qualify for, you pay back all of the extra. It comes off your refund or adds to what you owe.

As of October 2, 2026, under current law, the tax credit is generally for incomes from 100% to 400% of the poverty line. Bigger credits that helped some people above 400% ended after 2025. A bill to bring them back for 2026 through 2028 (H.R. 1834) passed the House on January 8, 2026. As of October 2, 2026, it has not passed the Senate and is not law. Its latest action, on February 10, 2026, placed it on the Senate calendar.

Being just over the 400% line can mean no credit at all. That is often called the subsidy cliff. We cover it in a separate guide.

Your estimate also decides if you get extra savings called cost-sharing reductions. They lower what you pay for deductibles, copays, and coinsurance. You only get them with a Silver plan. (American Indians and Alaska Natives have their own rules.) See our guide to bronze vs. silver plans in Florida.

Income range for a premium tax credit on 2027 coverage, by household size Table. 100 percent and 400 percent of the 2026 HHS poverty guidelines for the 48 contiguous states and D.C.: 1 person: $15,960 to $63,840; 2 persons: $21,640 to $86,560; 3 persons: $27,320 to $109,280; 4 persons: $33,000 to $132,000. 2027 COVERAGE Income range for a premium tax credit 100% to 400% of the federal poverty line, 48 states and D.C., under current law Household size 100% (low end) 400% (upper limit) 1 person $15,960 $63,840 2 people $21,640 $86,560 3 people $27,320 $109,280 4 people $33,000 $132,000 400% figures are 4 times the 2026 HHS poverty guidelines. Alaska and Hawaii use higher guidelines. HealthCare.gov may update these numbers when open enrollment starts. Sources: HHS 2026 Poverty Guidelines, 91 FR 1797 (Jan 15, 2026); 26 U.S.C. §36B(c)(1); IRS Premium Tax Credit Q&A, Q7. Accessed Oct 2, 2026.
Sources: HHS 2026 Poverty Guidelines, 91 FR 1797 (Jan 15, 2026), https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-01-15/html/2026-00755.htm; IRS Premium Tax Credit Q&A, Q7 (credit generally 100% to 400% of the poverty line, using the guidelines in effect when open enrollment starts); 26 U.S.C. §36B(c)(1)(A) (credit generally for 100% to 400% of the poverty line; the temporary rule in §36B(c)(1)(E) that allowed credits above 400% applied only through 2025). 400% values are 4 times the guideline. Accessed Oct 2, 2026.

Step 1: Start with adjusted gross income

Find your household's adjusted gross income (AGI). It is on your most recent federal tax return. On a 2025 Form 1040, it is on line 11a. On 2024 and earlier returns, it is on line 11.

A tax form on a desk with reading glasses and a phone showing a calculator.
Photo for illustration only, not a client: "Form 4868, 2010, with pen glasses phone" by MoneyBlogNewz (original Flickr page, archived), via Wikimedia Commons, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Cropped and resized from the original.

No recent AGI? Start with "federal taxable wages" from each earner's pay stub. If the stub doesn't show it, use gross pay. Then subtract what your job takes out for health coverage, child care, or retirement. Multiply by the number of paychecks you expect in the year.

Step 2: Add three kinds of untaxed income

The Marketplace uses modified adjusted gross income, or MAGI. For most people it is the same as, or close to, AGI. To get it, add these to your AGI:

  • Untaxed foreign income
  • Untaxed Social Security benefits
  • Tax-exempt interest

Don't add Supplemental Security Income (SSI).

Step 3: Adjust for 2027

Think about what will change next year for everyone in your household. HealthCare.gov lists things like these:

  • Raises or new jobs
  • Changes to work hours or self-employment income
  • Changes to Social Security or investment income
  • Gaining or losing a dependent

If your income is hard to predict, base your guess on past years, recent trends, and what you know is coming. HealthCare.gov also has an income calculator to help.

What counts and what doesn't

Count these:

  • Wages and tips (use federal taxable wages)
  • Self-employment income after expenses
  • All Social Security, taxed or not, before any deductions
  • Social Security Disability Income (SSDI)
  • Unemployment
  • Most IRA and 401(k) withdrawals, and pensions
  • Capital gains, interest, and dividends
  • Net rental and royalty income

Don't count these:

  • Child support, gifts, and loans
  • Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
  • Veterans' disability payments and workers' compensation
  • Child Tax Credit payments

Who counts in your household

A Marketplace household is usually you, your spouse, and anyone you will claim as a tax dependent. Include them even if they don't need coverage. If you are married, you generally need to file a joint tax return to get savings.

Count a dependent's income only if they must file a federal tax return. HealthCare.gov says to list it anyway, and the application leaves it out if they don't need to file.

Families in Central Florida can get help comparing family plans in Orlando.

If you're self-employed

Report your net self-employment income. That is your income minus business expenses. That is the profit you report on Schedule C. If you may be asked to prove it, keep a detailed record of your income and expenses.

If you pay for your own health plan, the self-employed health insurance deduction can lower your AGI. That can change your estimate, so talk to a tax pro about it.

In Central Florida, see our page on health insurance for self-employed people in Orlando. You can also find your trade on our industries we serve page.

If your income changes during the year

Update your Marketplace application as soon as you can. If your income goes up and you don't report it, you may have to pay back credit at tax time. If it goes down, you could qualify for more help.

Some changes may let you sign up for a plan or change plans outside open enrollment. If you lose job-based coverage, you can usually pick a Marketplace plan from 60 days before to 60 days after it ends. Dropping your job plan on purpose, or losing it for not paying, does not count. If you have a Marketplace Silver plan and an income change ends your cost-sharing reductions, you can switch to a Bronze, Silver, or Gold plan. See our guide to special enrollment in Florida.

If your income ends up above the limit, you won't get a premium tax credit for that year. You can also compare nationwide private PPO plans. Some private plans ask health questions, and approval is not guaranteed. Some may not cover care for health problems you had before you enrolled.

Your next step

We are an independent brokerage, and Paul is a licensed agent. We can walk through your estimate with you and compare plans. For a rough first look at pricing, try our Policy Pricing Calculator. In Central Florida, see our Orlando-area health insurance help. There's no fee for our help. We're paid by the insurance company when you enroll.

Marketplace income questions

What income counts?

The Marketplace uses modified adjusted gross income. That is your AGI plus untaxed foreign income, untaxed Social Security, and tax-exempt interest. Wages, tips, business profit, and unemployment count. So do most retirement withdrawals.

Do self-employed people use gross or net income?

Self-employed people use net income. That is what your business takes in minus business expenses, the profit on Schedule C. If expenses are higher, you report a loss.

Who counts in my household?

Usually you, your spouse, and anyone you'll claim as a tax dependent. Include them even if they don't need coverage. Don't include a roommate or a relative you won't claim.

What if my income changes?

Update your application as soon as you can. Higher income can mean less help, and lower income can mean more help, or Medicaid for some people. Reporting quickly lowers the chance of a surprise at tax time.

What if I guess too low?

You may have to pay back the extra credit when you file taxes. As of October 2, 2026, under current law, there is no cap on that payback, starting with 2026 taxes.

What's the 2027 upper limit?

As of October 2, 2026, under current law, it is generally 400% of the federal poverty line. For 2027 coverage, that is $63,840 for one person and $132,000 for a family of four in the 48 states and D.C.

Do 401(k) contributions lower it?

Money your employer takes out of your pay for a retirement plan is left out. HealthCare.gov says to use federal taxable wages, or gross pay minus those amounts. Most 401(k) withdrawals do count.

Does Social Security count?

All Social Security benefits count, taxed or not. Enter the full amount before any deductions. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) does not count.

Sources

  1. HealthCare.gov, "What to include as income". https://www.healthcare.gov/income-and-household-information/income/ (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  2. HealthCare.gov, "How to estimate your expected income". https://www.healthcare.gov/income-and-household-information/how-to-report/ (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  3. HealthCare.gov, "Who to include in your household". https://www.healthcare.gov/income-and-household-information/household-size/ (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  4. HealthCare.gov, "Reporting self-employment income to the Marketplace". https://www.healthcare.gov/self-employed/income/ (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  5. HealthCare.gov, "When your income or household changes". https://www.healthcare.gov/reporting-changes/ (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  6. HealthCare.gov, "Income levels & savings". https://www.healthcare.gov/lower-costs/ (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  7. HealthCare.gov, "Cost-sharing reductions". https://www.healthcare.gov/lower-costs/save-on-out-of-pocket-costs/ (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  8. HealthCare.gov, "Special Enrollment Period". https://www.healthcare.gov/coverage-outside-open-enrollment/special-enrollment-period/ (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  9. HealthCare.gov, "When can you get health insurance?" (dates and deadlines). https://www.healthcare.gov/quick-guide/dates-and-deadlines/ (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  10. CMS, Updated Statement regarding the Failure to File and Reconcile requirement for Plan Years 2026-2027 (July 27, 2026). https://www.cms.gov/files/document/ftr-requirement-py26-27-statement.pdf (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  11. IRS, Questions and answers on the Premium Tax Credit (Q1, Q7, Q8, Q31). https://www.irs.gov/affordable-care-act/individuals-and-families/questions-and-answers-on-the-premium-tax-credit (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  12. IRS, Publication 974 (2025), Premium Tax Credit. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p974.pdf (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  13. IRS, Revenue Procedure 2026-26 (2027 applicable percentage table). https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-26-26.pdf (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  14. 26 U.S.C. §36B, Refundable credit for coverage under a qualified health plan (Cornell LII; uscode.house.gov was down for maintenance on Oct 2, 2026). https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/36B (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  15. HHS, Annual Update of the HHS Poverty Guidelines, 91 FR 1797 (Jan 15, 2026). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-01-15/html/2026-00755.htm (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  16. Congress.gov, H.R. 1834 (119th Congress), all actions. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1834/all-actions (accessed Oct 2, 2026)
  17. Wikimedia Commons, "Form 4868, 2010, with pen glasses phone.jpg" by MoneyBlogNewz, CC BY 2.0 (photo). https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Form_4868,_2010,_with_pen_glasses_phone.jpg (accessed Oct 2, 2026)